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Leading Indicators of Poverty in Indonesia: Application in The Short-Term Outlook

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Development indicators operate very dynamically in line with the government’s program and policy response. The government, therefore, needs an estimate of the poverty rate for a specific period in line with the development of its constituent indicators. The rate is required by the government to ensure the implemented policy can achieve the target according to the plan. Given the available indicators, these leading indicators are more dynamic than the poverty line so they need to be monitored earlier to estimate the poverty line in a specific period.

This study varies from previous similar studies, where the poverty projection was made against all poverty indicators. In addition, an analysis was conducted at the national and regional (provincial, rural, and urban) levels in line with the indicators in the official publication of Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik: BPS). This study measures the impact of price increases on expenditure per capita, so the impact on the poverty line can be measured by observing changes in expenditure per capita. This study also formulates a method that can be replicated by policy makers by using inflation rate, economic growth, and population estimate for a specific period. This study concludes that it is very possible to apply the total inflation rate as a leading indicator to project the poverty rate if the government and other stakeholders require an alternative calculation before official figures become available. Nevertheless, the use of inflation in projecting the poverty rate is clearer than economic growth.

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Ketersediaan

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

Working Paper

No. Panggil

362.509598 NUG. L

Penerbit

Jakarta : TNP2K., 2020

Deskripsi Fisik

PDF, 36 Halaman

Bahasa

English

ISBN/ISSN

-

Klasifikasi

362.509598

Tipe Isi

Digital

Tipe Media

Digital Media

Tipe Pembawa

-

Edisi

Working Paper 49-2020

Subjek

Kemiskinan
Pengukuran kemiskinan di Indonesia

Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

Nugroho Dhanie

Versi lain/terkait

Lampiran Berkas

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