Hardcopy & Softcopy

Estimating Vulnerability to Poverty Using Panel Data: Evidence From Indonesia

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Traditional poverty measures fail to indicate the degree of risk of becoming or remaining poor that households are confronted to. They can therefore be misleading in the context of implementing poverty reduction policies. In this paper I propose a method to estimate an index of ex ante vulnerability to poverty, defined as the probability of being poor in the (near) future given current observable characteristics, using panel data. This method relies on the estimation of the expected mean and variance of future consumption conditional on current consumption and observable characteristics. It generates a vulnerability index, or predicted probability of future poverty, which performs well in predicting future poverty, including out of sample. About 80% of households with a 2000 vulnerability index of 100% are actually poor in 2007. This approach provides information on the population groups that have a high probability of becoming or remaining poor in the future, whether currently poor or not. It is therefore useful to complement traditional poverty measures such as the poverty headcount, in particular for the design and planning of poverty reduction policies.

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Ketersediaan

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

Textbook dan Working Paper

No. Panggil

362.509598 BAH e

Penerbit

Jakarta : TPN2K., 2013

Deskripsi Fisik

PDF, 28 Halaman

Bahasa

English

ISBN/ISSN

-

Klasifikasi

362.509598

Tipe Isi

Hardcopy & Softcopy

Tipe Media

Hardcopy & Softcopy

Tipe Pembawa

-

Edisi

TNP2K Working Paper 02 – 2013

Subjek

Kemiskinan
Analisis data panel di Indonesia

Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

Bah Adama

Versi lain/terkait

Lampiran Berkas

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